The Pacific Northwest’s warm and abnormally dry conditions this spring and summer may worsen as El Niño settles in the region this fall. That’s the assessment of meteorologists and climatologists including Karin Bumbaco, Washington’s assistant climatologist, who said precipitation and streamflows are below normal in most of the region. “Some drought impacts are starting to emerge for Western Washington … earlier than what usually happens in the summer,” she said during a webinar Monday hosted by National Integrated Drought Information System, the Northwest Climate Hub and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. Dry conditions are persistent across Washington, northwestern Oregon, Idaho and northwestern Montana, deteriorating rain-dominated stream flows. Nearly 39 percent of Washington is abnormally dry and almost 22 percent is in a moderate drought.

Wildfires The Drought Monitor reports that 2.3 million Washington residents are living in areas experiencing drought, many in the western side of the state, a number that will likely rise as the summer progresses. Washington experienced its 15th driest May on record since 1895, totaling 1.25 inches of precipitation — an inch lower than normal. The warm month also brought on rapid snowmelt, which came more than a week early in some locations. Despite this melt, up to 70 percent of Oregon and Washington’s topsoil is very short, meaning it contains less than what is required for normal plant growth, Bumbaco said. In these conditions, it is possible for plants to face irreparable damage. The National Interagency Fire Center continues to report that there will be above-normal significant potential for wildfires across Washington, Oregon and Idaho this summer.

Ed Townsend, a National Weather Service forecaster, said the Pacific Ocean’s east central and eastern surface near the equator is warming, indicating that El Niño conditions will likely emerge by early fall and strengthen in the winter. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which announced El Niño’s eventual arrival in early June, the climatic condition formed a month earlier than expected, giving it ample room to grow and potentially increase its peak power. The climate pattern — last happening in 2018-2019 — is a deviation from normal east to west trade winds, occurs every two to seven years and sends a mixture of impacts across the continent. The northern United States and Canada will become dryer and warmer than normal, while the southern U.S. will experience wetter weather. Wildfires, increased flooding and landslides will become likelier in respective regions. Historically, El Niño events tend to reach maximum strength between October and February and last from nine months to a year.

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